First of all, thank you for this crazy amount of interest! I didn't even dreamed about that, I thought I would reach about 5-10 people. Right now I see Twitter has disabled DMs because they think I've been spamming too much :D So I'll share all my notes here:
It was an excellent opportunity to learn more about the companies. Clearly, these are personal and subjective experiences, which might even be misleading.
So, let's first look at the facts, non-public information with sources:
- They will eventually enter the brick-and-mortar market. Until now, there has been zero communication about this. Fortunately, Todd shared this, and I felt it too. However, the product is far from perfect. So, it might take a few more years. But there's a significant opportunity for growth.
- I was disappointed that Jacob did not have a 10-year vision. But at least he knew the product very well, and he introduced it to many people.
- In Todd's 10-year vision, there's a platform shift, probably towards AR/VR according to him. Certainly, they won't be caught off guard.
- Entry barriers are high compared to the industry. According to Todd, a major player, Microgaming, burns through 30 million annually on Live Casino. NetEnt also burned money on live casino before they shut it down. Todd sees fewer and fewer live casino providers in the future.
- Crazy Time grew by 50% in its third year after launch, effectively without them doing anything.
- They have their own video player.
- Todd predicts that Las Vegas Sands will not deal a single card in the Live Casino segment. They weren't present at Ice... And they're not communicating about it.
- According to Todd, each phone/browser combination constitutes at most 0.5% of revenue. But everything has to work well on all of them. And with every update, some adjustments are necessary.
- The "wise" analysts asked Todd if they have an internal rate of return hurdle. Todd said that would just be unnecessary paperwork. This shows how little analysts understand this business.
- Todd wanted a Tesla as a prize giveaway, but it's challenging because the operators would have to handle the shipping, and they didn't want to do it, and it's hard. But my impression is that they will do it later.
- Crazy Time has been well received in the USA (Todd)
- Todd emphasized Evo's brand value in the eyes of users. Just like Coca Cola, they wouldn't easily switch to a lower quality. It was interesting to me that the WPN poker network, after it was definitively revealed that they couldn't filter out bots, and this was the main topic in the world's poker press for a month, still didn't see a drop in traffic. This can only be explained by people's love for playing their usual games. According to Todd, Evo is the LVMH of gambling in terms of brand equity. People trust them, and this is not visible from the outside, only through the numbers.
- One main thing Todd and Jacob explained to everyone is that they are introducing an AI Recommendation system upon every exit, in a non-annoying way. Additionally, they are integrating slots, and players will be able to multitabling slots during gameplay (cross-selling).
- They sped up Blackjack even more, which in numbers would be as if instead of playing at 7 spots, 11 are playing. Of course, others can easily copy this over time.
- A CEO of MGM Resorts, William Hornbuckle, talked about wanting the best games, and an online-&-B&M vertical.
- The annual cost of running a table is 15k USD (Todd). According to my calculations, where the average number of players is 100, it's already profitable. Todd said they lose on one game, a poker variant he came up with(Side Bet City), where, as I saw, an average of 30 play. But these smaller games also play a role in attracting players to the live casino. Todd considered removing Gonzo Quest, which wasn't a big success (average players about 100), but it actually makes money, and some people like it, with daily 15k different players. And every game have a role to convert of keep players at Live Casino or in the Evo lobby!
- Todd's innovative mindset is to tell his team to save the old games, the roulette blackjack baccarat trio, so Gen Z will play them.
- There won't be a US listing in the near future, said the Head of IR. Too many resources would be needed. However, he mentioned they already have many investors from the US, I remember 15-20%.
- Todd: the entry barriers are high. There hasn't been a successful entry into this market yet.
Impressions:
- Todd: "All this shiny marketing will not matter in the end. We just work work work. Apple is not at these kinds of shows. They are just working, and the quality of the product convinces people."
Others really went all-in on marketing. Free bars, prize giveaways, iPhones being raffled off in the company of scantily clad ladies, and all sorts of tactics. Fortunately, Evo does not stoop to the level of having underdressed women lead the games.
- Playtech Live Casino CEO: showed off their current live casino games enthusiastically to bored-faced analysts. He was happy that they merged two game studios, so the player sees two hosts, which he thinks is more fun. He was also pleased that this optimizes costs for them. Evo doesn't need to optimize costs because every such thing gives 100% Return on Capital to them.
He said they would beat Evo in regulated markets. The best games bring the return, not the regulation. He claimed they are first in Spain, but I think Evo might be pushed out because many operators use Playtech, or because Evo was too late going there with Spanish language.
- Pragmatic was outrageous:
They also only brought their existing games. They had some cheap VR solution where you could only watch animated soccer or horse racing.
At the live casino section, I asked two people when they would bring in Evo. They said they are currently number 1 because their games are more fun. And they started quizzing me on what basis I thought they weren't first. Whether I knew their games, etc. If this is denial, it's bad. If they are lying, that's also bad.
- Evo, on the other hand, was completely honest. They never exaggerated, just showed what they have. But other aggregators were also normal and honest. And kind. Todd honestly talks about mistakes, about unsuccessful games.
- Regarding key man risk, Todd says he is the face, but the team behind him is also important and good. And it's been the same since Dream Catcher (first game show). He used the term "It's institutional knowledge."
- Neither Evo's CFO nor the aggregators are worried about Asia. And it doesn't depend on one country's regulation. Of course, they might be delusional.
- Avatar Baccarat is a fantastic innovation. Very difficult, not even ready yet. It's very popular in Asia. They are light years ahead of the others.
- They brought more new games this year than the competition has in total.
- When I asked the really small live casino providers how they plan to overtake Evolution, most of them first burst out laughing (!) Then, becoming a bit more serious, they muttered some positive text that "Evolution was small once, so we can grow too."
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Thanks a lot for sharing!
" They will eventually enter the brick-and-mortar market. Until now, there has been zero communication about this."
-> I don't know if I like this
"In Todd's 10-year vision, there's a platform shift, probably towards AR/VR according to him"
-> I like this
Todd used the term "It's institutional knowledge."
-> great